Frequency of Renal Monitoring — Creatinine and Cystatin C (FORM-2C): an observational cohort study of patients with reduced eGFR in primary care
Fleming S., Perera-Salazar R., Taylor KS., Jones L., Hobbs FDR., James T., O’Callaghan CA., Shine B., Verbakel JY., Stevens R., Bankhead C.
BackgroundMonitoring is the mainstay of chronic kidney disease management in primary care; however, there is little evidence about the best way to do this.AimTo compare the effectiveness of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) derived from serum creatinine and serum cystatin C to predict renal function decline among those with a recent eGFR of 30–89 ml/min/1.73 m2.Design and settingObservational cohort study in UK primary care.MethodSerum creatinine and serum cystatin C were both measured at seven study visits over 2 years in 750 patients aged ≥18 years with an eGFR of 30–89 ml/min/1.73 m2 within the previous year. The primary outcome was change in eGFR derived from serum creatinine or serum cystatin C between 6 and 24 months.ResultsAverage change in eGFR was 0.51 ml/min/1.73 m2/year when estimated by serum creatinine and −2.35 ml/min/1.73 m2/year when estimated by serum cystatin C. The c-statistic for predicting renal decline using serum creatininederived eGFR was 0.495 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.471 to 0.519). The equivalent c-statistic using serum cystatin C-derived eGFR was 0.497 (95% CI = 0.468 to 0.525). Similar results were obtained when restricting analyses to those aged ≥75 or <75 years, or with eGFR ≥60 ml/min/1.73 m2. In those with eGFR <60 ml/min/1.73 m2, serum cystatin C-derived eGFR was more predictive than serum creatinine-derived eGFR for future decline in kidney function.ConclusionIn the primary analysis neither eGFR estimated from serum creatinine nor from serum cystatin C predicted future change in kidney function, partly due to small changes during 2 years. In some secondary analyses there was a suggestion that serum cystatin C was a more useful biomarker to estimate eGFR, especially in those with a baseline eGFR <60 ml/min/1.73 m2.